2024 Iranian presidential election
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Early presidential elections in Iran were held on 28 June 2024[3] following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on 19 May.[4]
Background
On 19 May 2024, Raisi was returning from a trip to the Iran-Azerbaijan border to inaugurate a hydroelectric complex at the Giz Galasi reservoir alongside the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.[5] During their journey, the helicopter carrying him and seven other passengers and crew[6] crashed at approximately 13:30 IRST (UTC+03:30) near the village of Uzi in Varzaqan County in East Azerbaijan province.[7][8] Later that day, the wreckage of the helicopter was located,[9] with everyone on board found dead. This led to First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber becoming the acting president according to Article 131 of the Constitution.[10]
Electoral system
The president of Iran is usually elected every four years by a "direct vote of the people", as set out by Article 114 of the Iranian Constitution,[10] which means that a presidential election should have taken place on or before 18 June 2025, but due to the death of the president, it will be held earlier. It is the country's highest directly elected official, the chief of the executive branch, and the second most important position after the Supreme Leader. Under Iran's political system, the Supreme Leader holds much more power than the President.[11] The minimum voting age is 18.
According to the Islamic Republic of Iran's constitution, any Iranian citizen who believes in Shia Islam, is loyal to the Constitution, the ideology of Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist and the Islamic Republic can participate in election as a presidential candidate. An institution called the Election Monitoring Agency (EMA), managed by the Guardian Council, vets registered candidates and selects a handful to run in the election.[12]
The Guardian Council does not publicly announce the reason for rejections of particular candidates, although those reasons are privately explained to each candidate. Women are not constitutionally restricted from running; however, all women who have registered as candidates have been excluded from standing for election by the Guardian Council,[13][14] although the council has officially denied rejecting a woman's candidacy because of her gender.[15]
Those approved by the Guardian Council are put to a public vote. The winner is the candidate who receives a majority (50% plus one) of votes. If no candidate receives enough votes, another election is held between the two candidates with the most votes the following Friday.[16] Iranians who vote during the election receive a stamp that indicates so on their birth certificates.[17]
According to the constitution, once the result is known, the Supreme Leader must sign the decree of the elected president, and if he refuses to sign, the elected president will not assume the presidency. So far, Supreme Leaders have always signed the decree of the elected president.[18][19] After that, the elected president must recite and sign an oath in a session of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, in the presence of the members of the Guardian Council and the head of the Supreme Court. In the Oath, the elected president must swear that he will guard the official religion (Islam), protect the Constitution and the Islamic Republic, and that he will dedicate himself to the service of the nation, its people, and its religion (among other things).[16]
For this election, more than 61 million citizens are eligible to vote, with about 18 million of them between aged between 18 to 30 years old.[20] Voters are required to present both birth certificates and national identity cards.[21]
The Ministry of Intelligence warned that presidential nominees were under constant monitoring.[22]
Overseas voting
Voting for overseas Iranians will be held in 250 locations worldwide.[23]
In Australia, polling was canceled in Brisbane and Sydney due to protests by the Iranian diaspora.[24] The Biden administration was criticised by opponents of the Iranian government for allowing the latter to install voting stations in the United States.[25] Saudi Arabia[26] and Canada refused to grant Iran permission to install overseas ballot boxes.[27] Voting stations were instead placed on the US-Canada border.[28]
Dates
Following the announcement of Raisi's death on 20 May, authorities announced that voting would be held on 28 June.[3] Registration of candidates began on 30 May and ran until 3 June,[29] while campaigning would last from 12 June until 27 June.[3]
Candidates
The registration to run for the presidency started on 30 May and ended on 3 June. A total of 80 people filed their candidacies for president, among them four women, mostly conservatives and ultra conservatives.[30][31] The final list of candidates was released by the Guardian Council on 9 June.[32] Those rejected by the council are not allowed to protest the rejection.[33]
Applied
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Rejected
The applications of least 30 people who registered their candidacies on 30 May were rejected due to failure to meet the "basic conditions for qualification".[51] A total of 74 aspirants had their candidacies rejected by the Guardian Council.[32] These included all four women who applied to run in the election.[52] Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the most notable to be disqualified by the Guardian Council, having been disqualified previously in 2021.[53]
Approved
Six candidates were allowed by the Guardian Council to run for president, namely Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Saeed Jalili, Masoud Pezeshkian, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Alireza Zakani.[32] On 26 June, Hashemi withdrew his candidacy and called on other candidates to follow "so that the front of the revolution will be strengthened". He was followed on 27 June by Zakani, who did so citing the need to "block the formation of a third administration" of former President Hassan Rouhani.[54]
Campaign
In a speech on 3 June, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told candidates not to attack each other and expressed his preference for a "revolutionary president".[56]
Most candidates have centered their platforms on social welfare and improvement of living conditions.[57][58][59][60][61][62][63]
The authorities gave 20GB of free internet data for use on domestic messengers and Telewebion for 30 days to mobile phones to promote information regarding the election.[64]
The full cost of the election is anticipated to be more than 357142857.14 USD by Radio Farda.[65]
Principlists
Saeed Jalili of the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability is running for president for the fourth time. Formerly the Minister of Foreign relations during JCPOA negotiations, he has been helping the government for the last 10 years.[66] He is backed by the Islamic Society of Students.[67]
In order to win votes, Alireza Zakani claimed he was giving away people 120 tons of free meat every day.[68] He also promised free health care for women and old people and cash payments to the poor.[69]
Reformists Front
Of the six candidates confirmed by the Guardian Council, Masoud Pezeshkian is regarded to be the only one representing moderates and reformists.[32] He is backed by Nedaye Iranian, the Trust party of Iran, Moderation and Development party and Women coalition of reformist parties[70][71][72][73][32] as well as former President Mohammad Khatami and former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.[74]
Pezeshkian's campaign slogan is "Living without Shamefulness".[75][76] He has also campaigned against the Guidance patrol's 2024 Nour program[77] and has criticised the country's laws on the wearing of the hijab.[78]
In his campaign speech Pezeshkian said that he will not be able to do anything for political prisoners as the president does not have that power.[79] He also told students not to insult Khamenei and that he is "assimilated into the Supreme leader" and follows Khamenei's policies.[80][81][82][83][excessive citations]
Pezeshkian's campaign staff have also utilised the song Baraye, which was composed by imprisoned singer-songwriter Shervin Hajipour.[84]
Issues
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Ghalibaf has promised to reduce the number of Afghan immigrants[85] and build a wall along Iran's borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan,[86] while Massoud Pezeshkian has supported banning Afghan immigrants.[87]
Mostafa Pourmohammadi has pledged an end to internet censorship.[88] and supports nuclear negotiations but from a position of power.[89] Jalili has opposed negotiations with the West as well as the ratification of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).[90] Pourmohammadi has also criticised Iranian military support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine due to what he calls the lack of benefits from Russia.[69]
Ghalibaf has supported strengthening the Axis of Resistance.[91]
Jalili supports finishing constructing 1 million housing units.[92]
Jalili is against importing cars while Ghalibaf supports it.[93]
Ghalibaf has promised better pay to health workers to stop emigration.[94]
Pezeshkian has said that he is open to closer relations with the United States and negotiating a new nuclear deal to alleviate Iran of its economic woes.[95]
Jalili has promised three days of free vacation to government tourist residences for every citizen per year.[96]
Debates
IRIB will exclusively hold and broadcast debates.[97][98] The IRIB and the Election Office warned candidates against ruining the country's public image.[99][100]
Documentaries will be also produced by IRIB for nominees.[101] The government also banned displaying images of candidates with Ali Khamenei and his predecessor as Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.[102]
In his first debate, Ghalibaf made several untrue claims on the economy such as 50% energy waste in the country and national GDP and productivity rate.[103] Journalist Vahid Ashtari alleged that Ghalibaf falsely claimed he had never sued any journalist.[104] Ashtari was arrested on 20 June after posting luggage records of Ghalibaf's daughter, who travelled to Turkey.[105]
In the debates, Zakani falsely said that there were no hijab police deployed in the Tehran Metro and that he had not opposed imported COVID-19 vaccines.[106][107]
According to Pourmohammedi, IRIB TV2’s news program 20:30 censored and manipulated a video he sent them.[108] Questions are given to the candidates beforehand.[109]
The candidates were asked during the first debate on issues such as inflation, the government's budget deficit, housing and corruption. All candidates pledged to have sanctions against Iran lifted, strengthen the rial and introduce reforms.[74]
During the 20 June debates, while discussing culture Pezeshkian's advisor Mohammed Fazeli threw his microphone at him and left the debate after getting into an argument with one of the hosts.[110] Economic issues were again discussed during the debate, as well as fuel subsidies and education.[111]
In the third debate Hashemi promised to make an area in beaches for women to ride jet skis and do water sports,[112] while Pourmohammedi promised to decriminalise not wearing a hijab and stop violent responses by police and Basij.[113] Jalili criticised media attention to Mahsa Amini's death rather than the deaths of thousands of women in Gaza.[114] Ghalibaf claimed Iran's National Information Network has progressed 75%, which Factnameh said is "unverifiable".[115]
In the fourth debate Pourmohammadi called Jalili a traitor for sabotaging the FATF ratification and Ahmadinejad's Crescent petroleum deal,[116] which Jalili denied and said the Crescent agreement was flawed.[117] Former Ministry of Petroleum Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said "Jalili and his pawn Zakani talk about Crescent in every quiet place" and that Jalili will not come to debate with him where he will "reveal how irreparable much economic damage Jalili has caused"[118] Hashemi criticised Hassan Rouhani and the reformists for warmongering in Afghanistan and praised Ebrahim Raisi for making peace and not letting Israel advance.[119] Pourmohammadi called the 1988 executions of Iranian political prisoners a "project of difficult times of the government" and that "only People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran members who were fighting against the people were executed."[120]
In the fifth debate Hashemi promised to eliminate twelve months conscription for males.[121] Hashemi denied that Internet censorship in Iran exists, while Pezeshkian defended the 2019 Internet blackout in Iran.[122] Pourmohammadi pledged to bring transparency to the Tehran Stock Exchange.[123] Ghalibaf blamed Debsh government corruption on inequity.[124]
During a debate on women, a representative of Jalili blamed women for being assaulted for not wearing a hijab.[125] Jalili himself told an interviewer that they did not understand the “strategic depth” of the hijab laws.[86]
| No | Date and time | Viewership |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 June[126] | 26-27%[127] |
| 2 | 20 June | |
| 3 | 21 June | |
| 4 | 24 June | |
| 5 | 25 June |
Criticism
The Guardian Council denied allegations that they had rigged the election.[128]
Abdolhamid Ismaeelzahi, the Sunni Friday Imam of Sistan and Baluchistan, criticized the system for not allowing women and religious minority candidates and closing down Sunni mosques and questioned the presidency's powers.[129][130][131] Four Sunni clerics were arrested in Urmia for criticizing the election.[132]
Overseas monarchist opposition figures and groups such as Reza Pahlavi, the former crown prince of Iran, and the re-formed Iran-Novin Party called the election a circus.[133][134] The National Front boycotted the election.[135]
Although it is criminalised,[136] the Iranian Complainant Mothers,[137] the daughter of former president Akbar Rafsanjani, Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani,[138] Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi,[139] imprisoned activist Abolfazl Ghadyani,[140] and the Coalition for a Secular Democratic Republic in Iran[141] have called for the boycotting of the election. The hashtag #ElectionCircus became a prominent topic among Iranians on social media.[142]
Opinion polling and forecasts
| Date | Pollster | Sample size | Margin of error | Jalili | Ghalibaf | Pezeshkian | Hashemi (Withdrew in favor of Jalili, Ghalibaf and Zakani)[143] | Zakani (Withdrew in favor of Jalili and Ghalibaf)[144] | Pourmohammadi | Havent decided | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 June | Tehran University[145] | 3.5% | 26.8% | 23.3% | 32.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | ||
| 26 June | Iranian Students Polling Agency[146] | 3589 | 28.8% | 19.1% | 33.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 10.5% | 4.3% | ||
| 22–24 June | Mellat Opinion Poll Institute (Islamic Consultative Assembly)[147] | 1100 | 16.3% | 16.9% | 23.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 38.4% | 6.6% | ||
| 22–23 June | Shenaakht[148] | 1000 | 20% | 19% | 28% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 28% | 8% | ||
| 22–23 June | Imam Sadeq University[149] | 1500 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 24.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2% | 21.8% | 1% | ||
| 22–23 June | Iranian Students Polling Agency[150] | 4057 | 24% | 14.7% | 24.4% | 2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 30.6% | 0.4% | ||
| 18–20 June | IRIB[citation needed] | 22.5% | 19.5% | 19.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 28.4% | 3% | |||
| 18–20 June | Mellat Opinion Poll Institute (Islamic Consultative Assembly) [151] | 850 | 18.2% | 20.7% | 18.9% | 4.6% | 2% | 1.8% | 33.8% | 1.8% | ||
| 18–19 June | Iranian Students Polling Agency[152] | 4545 | 26.2% | 19% | 19.8% | 2.6% | 2% | 0.9% | 27.4% | 6.4% | ||
| 18–19 June | Imam Sadeq University [153] | 23.5% | 29.3% | 30% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 12.4% | 0.7% | |||
| 11–13 June | Research Center for Culture, Art and Communication[154] | 36.7% | 30.4% | 28.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 62% | 6.3% | |||
| 30 May | Beginning of registration | |||||||||||
The Iranian Students Polling Agency predicted a turnout of 44.4%.[155][156] According to a poll conducted between 26 and 29 May 2024 by the Majlis Research Center, the voter turnout is predicted to be over 53%.[157] This number is expected to increase as the election draws near.[158]
Polling conducted by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance predicted 29.8% participation in Tehran.[159]
The Law Enforcement Command of the Islamic Republic of Iran warned people against sharing posts with fake polls, declaring it a crime.[160]
On 25 June, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for "high participation" in the election, calling it "the pride of the Islamic republic".[161] He also warned against supporting candidates who believe that "all ways to progress" come from the United States.[162] Abbas Abdi, one of Iran's most influential reformist figures, predicted a maximum turnout of 60%, and a minimum of 55%.[163][164][165][166][excessive citations]
Conduct
Voting was held in nearly 60,000 voting stations and 90,000 “voting points” nationwide, while more than 300 voting stations were set up overseas. Polling was initially expected to run from 08:00 to 18:00,[167] but was extended at the last minute by the Interior Ministry to 20:00.[168]
See also
References
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